Advanced Risk And Uncertainty Management: Tunnel Boring Machine

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Advanced Risk And Uncertainty Management: Tunnel Boring Machine

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Advanced Risk And Uncertainty Management: Tunnel Boring Machine

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Question:
Dicuss about the Advanced Risk and Uncertainty Management for Tunnel Boring Machine.

Answer:

Probability of choosing “Tunnel Boring Machine” is 0.5 and probability of choosing “Drill and Blast” method is 0.5.
Probability of the ground being unstable is 0.33.
Therefore, the probability of choosing the “Tunnel Boring Machine” and the ground is unstable is 0.5 * 0.33 = 0.165
The estimated construction cost for this combination (combination 1) is $300000000 * 0.165 = $ 49500000.
Estimated construction time in months = 45* 0.165 = 7.425 months
Probability of ground being stable is 0.67.
Probability of ground being consistent = 0.15.
Probability of choosing a stable and consistent ground under the method of “Tunnel Boring Machine” (combination 2) = 0.5* 0.67 * 0.15 = 0.05025
Estimated cost of construction is $ 230000000 * 0.05025= $11557500
Estimated time in months = 34 * 0.05025 = 1.7085
Probability of the ground being “significant water ingress” is 0.3.
Probability of choosing “Tunnel Boring Machine” construction for stable ground and “significant water ingress” (combination 3) = 0.5 *0.67 * 0.3 = 0.1005
Estimated cost for the construction is $ 250000000 * 0.1005 = $25125000
Estimated time in months is 40 * 0.1005 = 4.02
Probability of the ground being “dry but utilities obstacles” is 0.55
Probability of choosing “Tunnel Boring Machine” construction for stable ground and “dry but utilities obstacles” (combination 4) is 0.5 * 0.67 * 0.55 = 0.18425

Estimated construction cost = 0.18425 * $250000000 = $ 46062500
Estimated time of construction in months = 0.18425 * 40 = 7.37
Probability of choosing “Drill and Blast” = 0.5
Probability of choosing “unstable ground” = 0.33
Probability of choosing “Drill and Blast” and “unstable ground” (combination 5) = 0.5 * 0.33 = 0.165
Estimated construction cost = $280000000 * 0.165 = $46200000
Estimated construction time = 42 * 0.165 = 6.93
Probability of “stable ground” = 0.67
Probability of choosing “consistent ground” under “stable ground” and “Drill and Blast” (combination 6) = 0.15 * 0.67 * 0.5 = 0.05025
Estimated construction cost = $200000000 * 0.05025 = $10050000
Estimated construction time in months = 40 * 0.05025 = 2.01
Probability of “significant water ingress” under “stable ground” and “Drill and Blast” (combination 7) = 0.5 * 0.67 * 0.3 = 0.1005
Estimated construction cost = $240000000 * 0.1005=$24120000
Estimated construction time in months = 47* 0.1005 = 4.7235
Probability of choosing “dry but utilities obstacles” under “stable ground” and “Drill and Blast” (combination 8) = 0.5* 067 * 0.55 = 0.18425
Estimated construction cost = $230000000 * 0.18425 = $ 42377500
Estimated construction time = 48* 0.18425 = 8.844
It was seen that combination 2; i.e. choosing the process of “Tunnel Boring Machine” construction under the variable “stable ground” and “consistent ground” would take minimum time to complete the task. The task would be completed in 1.7085 months. This process takes the lowest time. The cost for this process is $11557500, which is the second least construction cost among all the given processes. Thus, it is best to choose this process for construction.
Total cost estimate of the project is $47 M. Four work packages were identified for the project. The estimated cost for “work project 1” is $7.50 M. The estimated cost for “work package 2” is $ 18.00M. The estimated cost for “work package 3” is $20.17M and the estimated cost for “work package 4” is $4.33 M. The estimates cost for each package is computed by the formula (low + (4 * Most likely) + High) /6. The sum of Estimated cost for all the four packages was found to be $50 M. It was found that the risk involved to complete this project was $%0 M – $47 M = $3 M.
The “expected cost” of the project is $56M. Its “standard deviation” is $16 M. The probability that the project cost would be over $75M is given as follows.
The z score of the project cost is (75 – 56) / 16 = 1.1875
The value of P(X < 1.1875) = 0.882485 The probability that the cost of the project would be over $75 M is given by 1 - P(X < 1.1875) = 1- 0.882485 = 0.117515 The project would be delayed with a probability of 67%; i.e. 0.67 The P(X > Z) = 0.439913
P(X < Z) = 1- 0.439913 = 0.560087 The cost of the project in this would be (0.560087 * 16) + 56 = $64.96 The overall risk of the project would be $64.96 - $56 = $8.96. Free Membership to World's Largest Sample Bank To View this & another 50000+ free samples. Please put your valid email id. E-mail Yes, alert me for offers and important updates Submit Download Sample Now Earn back the money you have spent on the downloaded sample by uploading a unique assignment/study material/research material you have. After we assess the authenticity of the uploaded content, you will get 100% money back in your wallet within 7 days. UploadUnique Document DocumentUnder Evaluation Get Moneyinto Your Wallet Total 3 pages PAY 2 USD TO DOWNLOAD *The content must not be available online or in our existing Database to qualify as unique. Cite This Work To export a reference to this article please select a referencing stye below: APA MLA Harvard OSCOLA Vancouver My Assignment Help. (2017). Advanced Risk And Uncertainty Management: Tunnel Boring Machine. Retrieved from https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/advanced-risk-and-uncertainty-management-tunnel-boring-machine. "Advanced Risk And Uncertainty Management: Tunnel Boring Machine." My Assignment Help, 2017, https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/advanced-risk-and-uncertainty-management-tunnel-boring-machine. My Assignment Help (2017) Advanced Risk And Uncertainty Management: Tunnel Boring Machine [Online]. Available from: https://myassignmenthelp.com/free-samples/advanced-risk-and-uncertainty-management-tunnel-boring-machine[Accessed 19 December 2021]. My Assignment Help. 'Advanced Risk And Uncertainty Management: Tunnel Boring Machine' (My Assignment Help, 2017) accessed 19 December 2021.

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